Friday, January 04, 2008

Now It's a Race

So, after one of the most intriguing (and bloated) primary-season lead-ups in the history of humankind, the first results are in. Huckabee and Obama get the win in Iowa. Clinton and Romney get the “struggling campaign” tag. The rest of us get a real election.

A few weeks ago I openly hoped for an exciting election season. Some found my remarks overly flippant. But I stand by them. Unexpected results keep the candidates on their toes, make them go off script and fight for real votes rather than just fighting for war chest dollars. Plus, an exciting race is good entertainment, which keeps all of us more attentive to what the candidates are really saying and doing.

What do the Iowa results mean? They mean the evangelical wing of the Republican party is very strong in Iowa. They mean fundraising ability isn’t the most accurate predictor of victory. They mean Obama’s appeal really can be widespread, at least among Democrats.

The finish line is still a long way away, but here’s what I think: Huckabee just secured himself the nod for Vice President. Clinton’s campaign will fight hard (and turn nastier) but her third-place finish gives the Clinton-haters all the ammunition they need to paint her as unelectable. If she can’t take New Hampshire, the Democratic nomination will flow smoothly to Obama. If she does win Tuesday, all bets are off.

On the Republican side, there is a serious fight ahead that will last at least until Super Tuesday and quite possibly into March. Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Thompson and Giuliani are all still viable and Ron Paul will continue to shake things up.

Time for political junkies to strap on their hats. This could get bumpy.

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1 Comments:

Blogger Dennis Sanders said...

So you are reading my blog! ;)

Okay, I will cede some ground, last night was exciting, but there has to be more than simple entertainment in a presidential race. But, I do have to say having Obama have such a solid victory in such an overwhelmingly white state is telling. Maybe there is something there.

Good to see you blogging regularly again, btw.

8:56 AM  

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