Finding Meaning in Iowa

Some must reads on the Iowa caucus results:

Shay at Booker Rising gives an in-depth look at what Obama’s victory means for racial politics and black politicians in America.

Michael Reynolds at Sideways Mencken looks at the results and forecasts what’s to come.

Joe Gandelman of Moderate Voice examines how both parties bucked their establishments.

Donklephant has all kinds of news including some live-blogging from last night and analysis of Obama’s victory as well as Ron Paul’s decent showing.

And, finally, from the MSM, David Brooks looks at the two earthquakes felt last night and what they mean for both parties.

Now It's a Race

So, after one of the most intriguing (and bloated) primary-season lead-ups in the history of humankind, the first results are in. Huckabee and Obama get the win in Iowa. Clinton and Romney get the “struggling campaign” tag. The rest of us get a real election.

A few weeks ago I openly hoped for an exciting election season. Some found my remarks overly flippant. But I stand by them. Unexpected results keep the candidates on their toes, make them go off script and fight for real votes rather than just fighting for war chest dollars. Plus, an exciting race is good entertainment, which keeps all of us more attentive to what the candidates are really saying and doing.

What do the Iowa results mean? They mean the evangelical wing of the Republican party is very strong in Iowa. They mean fundraising ability isn’t the most accurate predictor of victory. They mean Obama’s appeal really can be widespread, at least among Democrats.

The finish line is still a long way away, but here’s what I think: Huckabee just secured himself the nod for Vice President. Clinton’s campaign will fight hard (and turn nastier) but her third-place finish gives the Clinton-haters all the ammunition they need to paint her as unelectable. If she can’t take New Hampshire, the Democratic nomination will flow smoothly to Obama. If she does win Tuesday, all bets are off.

On the Republican side, there is a serious fight ahead that will last at least until Super Tuesday and quite possibly into March. Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Thompson and Giuliani are all still viable and Ron Paul will continue to shake things up.

Time for political junkies to strap on their hats. This could get bumpy.

Clinton v. McCain Lacks Excitement

Iowa’s largest paper, The Des Moines Register, has endorsed Hillary Clinton and John McCain, saying the two are their respective party’s most prepared candidate.

That seems accurate. I don’t think I can argue that Clinton and McCain have a level of experience and federal governmental expertise that outmatches their competitors’. Both certainly possess the intelligence to be president and have that tried-and-true feeling about them. But, really, how boring.

After months and months and oh-my-God endless months of campaigning, The Register endorses the original odds-on favorites. After Obama’s glow, Romney’s money, Huckabee’s insurgence and Edwards’ indefatigability (not to mention the delightfully nonconformist campaigns of Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul), we’re back to where we started: the curmudgeonly conservative and the plastic liberal. Wheeee.

Hopefully The Register’s endorsements portend nothing. The Republicans should at least give us a race interesting enough to end in someone other than McCain. Or Giuliani. Those two have done a heck of a job obfuscating their moderate instincts while crushing their once-formidable integrity under months of transparent pandering. They might still lead national polls (Giuliani) and win establishment approvals (McCain) but I think the Republican Party will end up with someone else.

Over on the Democratic side, Obama is the only viable threat to Clinton, but that’s a serious threat. He may not have the kind of experience so-admired by The Register, but he has an authenticity of character and an originality of voice necessary to overcome Clinton’s perceived inevitability.

I hope some excitement comes out of this insanely long election season. I have no horse as of yet, so I’m hoping some drama illuminates these carefully guarded candidates. Even if that doesn’t help me come to a decision, it’ll at least be more entertaining than the kind of election The Des Moines Register recommends.