Maverick Views Political Predictions

I don’t make lots of predictions. Forecasting the future is generally just a good way to prove one’s abject ignorance. Then again, it’s not like I’m working with a platinum-level reputation here. So, without further adieu, here’s what I see happening in the 2008 political season:

• After some early success, Mitt Romney’s fortunes falter quickly when Republicans realize that a flip-flopping politician from Massachusetts is not the best of bets.

• Hillary Clinton’s black hole charisma will make what should have been a cakewalk to the nomination a very competitive race.

• Once their candidate drops out of the primaries, Ron Paul supporters will fail to get the Republican to mount an independent campaign. They will, however, remain fantastically weird and stage the only unscripted moments at the Republican convention.

• Huckabee finally drops out of the race after making yet another gaffe, this one involving a poorly considered joke about Giuliani, pizza and the Virgin Mary.

• As for Giuliani, he discovers that skipping Iowa and New Hampshire was not the best way to keep his name in the news. He places third in Florida and the media deem his campaign over. He withdraws a week later. He later hosts Saturday Night Live and unveils a hilarious John McCain impersonation.

• Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, John Edwards recaptures his glorious also-ran status of four years ago, consistently placing second or third but never getting media coverage as Clinton assumes the Howard Dean flameout role and Obama takes the Kerry ascendancy role.

• McCain will regain his mojo and end up with the Republican nomination. He will make peace with the Jesus wing of the party by choosing Huckabee or Sam Brownback as his VP. McCain will then do everything he can to distance himself from his own VP, assuring the second-banana role goes back to its “bucket of spit” status of the pre-Cheney years.

• Obama will take advantage of the Clinton charisma gap and end up with the Democratic nomination. Fifty-percent of those who vote for him will then be shocked to discover he’s actually a good deal further left than Clinton. These folks will be somewhat relieved when Obama chooses Joe Biden as his VP.

• Michael Bloomberg will not run. Unity ’08 will not gain any traction. “Centrists” around the nation will split off into pro-McCain and pro-Obama factions, realizing they never had that much in common in the first place.

• McCain’s maverick instincts will inoculate him against Obama’s soaring rhetoric but increasing chaos in Iraq will make the election extremely close. McCain ends up winning by just a few electoral votes but Democrats will gain an even stronger hold of Congress as split-ticket voting runs rampant.

• If none of this happens, something different will.