Democrats Leading in New Poll

In the most recent Associated Press-Ipsos poll, Democrats are still favored to reclaim the House this November. Here’s how it breaks down:

Not surprisingly, 81 percent of self-described liberals said they would vote for the Democrat. Among moderates, though, 56 percent backed a Democrat in their district and almost a quarter of conservatives — 24 percent — said they will vote Democratic.

Democrats also held the advantage among persuadable voters — those who are undecided or wouldn't say whom they prefer. A total of 51 percent said they were leaning Democrat, while 41 percent were leaning Republican.

Of course, a national lead for the Democrats doesn’t mean they’ll pick up those 15 seats they need to take back the House. But you have to figure they actually have a pretty good shot. And should they succeed, it’s all but curtains for the Bush administration.

With a Democratic House, we can expect 2 years of gridlocked government—which might not be such a bad thing. There are times when I would prefer our current leaders do nothing at all rather than try to do something and just cause more harm than good. But I’d be a lot more excited about a Democratic House if it didn’t come with Nancy Pelosi as its Speaker. That thought sends my stomach churning.

But none of us get to decide which party is in charge. We vote for one Representative. For me, that means choosing between 20-year Republican incumbent Lamar Smith and Democratic challenger, John Courage. While I can’t find any confirmation on a major news site, a number of blogs have declared my district in play based on Smith’s low approval ratings. If this is true, then I look forward to casting a meaningful vote.

And right now, it looks like a lot of Americans will be casting meaningful votes this year. The Democrats can only hope enough of those will be for their candidates.