Giuliani Could be Helped by Democratic House

Today, The Wall Street Journal opinion pages look into Giuliani’s chances and give him a more than average chance at victory, if the cards fall right.

The editorial discusses everything from Giuliani’s possible trouble with the Republican social-conservative base to a rather nasty, race-baiting video produced by leftists seeking to tar Giuliani as a minority-bashing, civil-liberties trampling dictator.

None of that is surprising—Giuliani has never be afraid to upset constituencies on the left or the right and any Giuliani observer knows the man has a lot of hurdles between him and the presidency. But what if that path to the White House could be made smoother by a Democratic takeover of Congress?

[A] Democratic takeover of Congress would be a gift for all Republican presidential candidates, but especially for a Republican centrist. The would-be Democratic speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, has already made it plain that she intends to put an investigation of the Bush administration at the center of her otherwise thin agenda--and thereby to replicate the mistake made by Republicans in the Clinton era. A variety of other high-profile Democratic leftists, including Charles Rangel and John Conyers, would ascend to committee chairmanships, giving the House so marked a partisan complexion as to enable even the most moderate of Republicans to position themselves to the right of it.

I find this analysis to ring rather true. Plus, with a partisan House fighting a partisan administration for the next two years, Americans would be even more likely to reach towards a strong leader with a history of placing the public interest over partisan games. Giuliani fits that profile.

Democrats seeking to recapture Congress this year should be careful what they wish for. With the current Democratic leadership of the House being what it is, a win in 2006 could lead straight to another Republican presidency in 2008.